Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée · Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
Luparense vs Vigasio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Luparense and 0.95 for Vigasio, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Luparense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Luparense win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luparense home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vigasio away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Luparense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Luparense and 0.95 for Vigasio, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.7%
- 2–010.5%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.8%
Recent form
Luparense
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Este · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brian Lignano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clodiense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schio · 0-0 (D)
Vigasio
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Obermais · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Legnago Salus · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luparense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brian Lignano · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Clodiense · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cjarlins Muzane | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Luparense | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | Sandona | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Clodiense | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Legnago Salus | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Campodarsego | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mestre | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Este | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Conegliano | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Bassano Virtus | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | LME | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Altavilla | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| 13 | FC Obermais | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Triestina | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Virtus Bolzano | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 9 |
| 16 | Calvi Noale | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Schio | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 18 | Brian Lignano | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Luparense win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.