Lusail City vs Al-Markhiya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Lusail City and 0.74 for Al-Markhiya, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Lusail City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lusail City win

46.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.19 – 0.74

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lusail City home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Markhiya away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lusail City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 30% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Lusail City and 0.74 for Al-Markhiya, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Lusail City win47%

Draw30%

Al-Markhiya win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

1–017.3%
0–014.6%
1–112.8%
0–110.8%
2–010.3%

Recent form

Lusail City

2026-10-10T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Shahaniya · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-29T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Waab · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Wakrah · 4-0 (W)

Al-Markhiya

2026-09-29T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Doha · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Lusail City · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Rayyan SC B · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa B · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-23T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Khor · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

QSL Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Shamal	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	Al-Duhail SC	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	UMM Salal	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Qatar SC	2	1	1	0	1	4
5	Al Waab	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Al Wakrah	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Lusail City	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Al-Gharafa	1	1	0	0	2	3
9	Muaither SC	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	Al Shahaniya	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Al-Rayyan SC	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Al Ahli Doha	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Al Kharaitiyat	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Al-Markhiya	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Al-Sailiya	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Al-Arabi SC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Al Mesaimeer	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Al-Khor	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Al Bidda SC	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lusail City win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.