Estádio Carlos Osório · Referee João Pedro Afonso, Portugal · Analysis updated 02:13 UTC
Lusitânia Lourosa vs AVS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Lusitânia Lourosa and 0.94 for AVS, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Lusitânia Lourosa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lusitânia Lourosa win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lusitânia Lourosa home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AVS away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lusitânia Lourosa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Lusitânia Lourosa and 0.94 for AVS, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Lusitânia Lourosa
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Felgueiras 1932 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Os Limianos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaves · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Madalena · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP B · 2-1 (W)
AVS
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Penafiel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Farense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Penafiel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Academica | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Farense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Benfica B | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | AVS | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Tondela | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Vizela | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | União de Leiria | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Leixoes | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Portimonense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Chaves | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Porto B | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Felgueiras 1932 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lusitânia Lourosa win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.