Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa FC · Referee Anzhony Rodrigues, Portugal · Analysis updated 01:29 UTC
Lusitânia Lourosa vs FC Porto B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Lusitânia Lourosa and 0.77 for FC Porto B, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Lusitânia Lourosa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lusitânia Lourosa win
72.2% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lusitânia Lourosa home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Porto B away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lusitânia Lourosa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 17% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Lusitânia Lourosa and 0.77 for FC Porto B, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.3%
- 1–010.6%
- 3–09.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Lusitânia Lourosa
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Felgueiras 1932 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Os Limianos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaves · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Madalena · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP B · 2-1 (W)
FC Porto B
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vizela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tondela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Feirense · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Penafiel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Academica | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Farense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Benfica B | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | AVS | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Tondela | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Vizela | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | União de Leiria | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Leixoes | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Portimonense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Chaves | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Porto B | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Felgueiras 1932 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lusitânia Lourosa win, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.