Campo Do Sport Lisboa e Évora · Referee Diogo Vicente · Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Lusitano GC Évora vs Aljustrelense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lusitano GC Évora and 0.83 for Aljustrelense, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Lusitano GC Évora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lusitano GC Évora win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lusitano GC Évora home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aljustrelense away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lusitano GC Évora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Lusitano GC Évora and 0.83 for Aljustrelense, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–011.4%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–19.4%
Recent form
Lusitano GC Évora
- 2021-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olhanense · 1-1 (D)
- 2021-04-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lagos · 2-2 (D)
- 2021-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Moncarapachense · 0-0 (D)
- 2021-03-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Moura · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventude Évora · 1-2 (L)
Aljustrelense
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2021-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 0-2 (L)
- 2021-04-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Moura · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2021-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · Lusitano GC Évora 0-0 Aljustrelense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H)
- 2020-11-08T15:00:00.000Z · Lusitano GC Évora 3-0 Aljustrelense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H)
- 2020-01-05T15:00:00.000Z · Lusitano GC Évora 3-4 Aljustrelense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 20 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 50 |
| 2 | Amora | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 44 |
| 3 | Olhanense | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Louletano | 20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 34 |
| 5 | Moncarapachense | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | Pinhalnovense | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | Juventude Évora | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | -9 | 24 |
| 8 | Lagos | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 23 |
| 9 | Lusitano GC Évora | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 10 | Aljustrelense | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | -29 | 14 |
| 11 | Moura | 20 | 0 | 4 | 16 | -26 | 4 |
| 12 | Armacenenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lusitano GC Évora win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.