Stadion an der Holzstrasse · Analysis updated 05:43 UTC
Lustenau vs Kitzbühel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Lustenau and 1.95 for Kitzbühel, a combined total of 3.67. That distribution gives Kitzbühel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lustenau home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kitzbühel away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kitzbühel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 35% / 22% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Lustenau and 1.95 for Kitzbühel, a combined 3.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.6%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
Lustenau
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Röthis · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Fügen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Imst · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lochau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SK St. Johann · 1-1 (D)
Kitzbühel
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolfurt · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Swarovski Tirol II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SVG Reichenau · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dornbirn · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rheindorf Altach II · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.