· Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Lustenau vs Kufstein Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Lustenau and 1.88 for Kufstein, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Kufstein the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kufstein win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lustenau home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kufstein away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kufstein to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 26% / 23% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Lustenau and 1.88 for Kufstein, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–16.5%
Recent form
Lustenau
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Imst · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lochau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SK St. Johann · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolfurt · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Swarovski Tirol II · 1-3 (L)
Kufstein
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hohenems · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitzbühel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwaz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lauterach · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Röthis · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imst | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Schwaz | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 28 |
| 3 | Hohenems | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Dornbirn | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Kitzbühel | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | Röthis | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Swarovski Tirol II | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 20 |
| 8 | SK St. Johann | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Fügen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 16 |
| 10 | SVG Reichenau | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Lauterach | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Kufstein | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Lochau | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 |
| 14 | Lustenau | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 15 | Rheindorf Altach II | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 6 |
| 16 | Wolfurt | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kufstein win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.