Luunja vs Tartu Kalev Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Luunja and 1.85 for Tartu Kalev, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Luunja the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Luunja win

49.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.32 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Luunja home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tartu Kalev away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Luunja to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 20% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Luunja and 1.85 for Tartu Kalev, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Luunja win49%

Draw20%

Tartu Kalev win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

2–17.7%
2–27.1%
1–16.6%
1–26.1%
3–16.0%

Recent form

Luunja

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs JK Tabasalu · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Levadia U19 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Narva U21 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tulevik · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs JK Tabasalu · 2-3 (L)

Tartu Kalev

2026-10-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Levadia U19 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tulevik · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Legion · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Narva U21	34	23	4	7	39	73
2	Levadia U19	33	21	2	10	30	65
3	Phoenix	34	18	3	13	0	57
4	Luunja	33	17	5	11	25	56
5	Tulevik	34	16	5	13	18	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	15	5	13	33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	16	2	16	13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	11	4	19	-38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	8	6	19	-17	30
10	Legion	34	3	4	27	-103	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Luunja win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.