· Analysis updated 12:04 UTC
Luverdense U20 vs Corinthians U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Luverdense U20 and 1.01 for Corinthians U20, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives Corinthians U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Corinthians U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corinthians U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Luverdense U20 and 1.01 for Corinthians U20, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–013.4%
- 0–013.3%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Luverdense U20
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletico PR U20 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-01-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Trindade U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-01-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-01-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs XV de Jaú U20 · 1-2 (L)
Corinthians U20
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jabaquara U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Suzano U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapirense U20 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
São Paulo Youth Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.