Stadion Allmend · Analysis updated 11:01 UTC
Luzern W vs Aarau W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.90 expected goals for Luzern W and 1.19 for Aarau W, a combined total of 4.09. That distribution gives Luzern W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Luzern W win
72.4% probability
Expected goals
2.90 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luzern W home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aarau W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Luzern W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 15% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.90 goals for Luzern W and 1.19 for Aarau W, a combined 4.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–07.1%
- 3–06.8%
- 4–15.9%
Recent form
Luzern W
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette Chênois W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshopper W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-0 (W)
Aarau W
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Basel W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Boys W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Gallen W · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Zürich W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Young Boys W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Grasshopper W | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | Basel W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Rapperswil Jona W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Yverdon W | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Luzern W win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.