Stadion Allmend · Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Luzern W vs Basel W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Luzern W and 1.37 for Basel W, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Luzern W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luzern W home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Basel W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Luzern W
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshopper W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarau W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Gallen W · 3-1 (W)
Basel W
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarau W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Zürich W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · Luzern W 1-2 Basel W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2026-03-14T19:15:00.000Z · Luzern W 1-2 Basel W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2025-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · Luzern W 2-2 Basel W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-12-07T17:00:00.000Z · Luzern W 0-3 Basel W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · Luzern W 1-6 Basel W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-02-10T15:00:00.000Z · Luzern W 1-8 Basel W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · Luzern W 1-5 Basel W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-05-27T16:00:00.000Z · Luzern W 1-0 Basel W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-05-21T12:00:00.000Z · Luzern W 0-2 Basel W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-04-22T15:00:00.000Z · Luzern W 1-1 Basel W (AXA Women’s Super League)
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Zürich W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Young Boys W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Grasshopper W | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | Basel W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Rapperswil Jona W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Yverdon W | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.