Stadiumi Luz i Vogël · Analysis updated 20:08 UTC
Luzi 2008 vs Tërbuni Pukë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Luzi 2008 and 1.20 for Tërbuni Pukë, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Luzi 2008 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Luzi 2008 win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luzi 2008 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tërbuni Pukë away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Luzi 2008 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Luzi 2008 and 1.20 for Tërbuni Pukë, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Luzi 2008
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kastrioti Krujë · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sopoti Librazhd · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Veleçiku Koplik · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftëtari Kuçovë · 1-0 (W)
Tërbuni Pukë
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Murlani · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Albanët · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gramshi · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2nd Division - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 57 |
| 2 | Luzi 2008 | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 56 |
| 3 | Sopoti Librazhd | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 51 |
| 4 | Tërbuni Pukë | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 38 |
| 5 | Veleçiku Koplik | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 34 |
| 6 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 34 |
| 7 | Albanët | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 24 |
| 8 | Naftëtari Kuçovë | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -2 | 22 |
| 9 | Adriatiku | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Basania | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -15 | 21 |
| 11 | Gramshi | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -23 | 14 |
| 12 | Murlani | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | -82 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Luzi 2008 win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.