Luziânia U20 vs Grêmio Valparaíso U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Luziânia U20 and 3.02 for Grêmio Valparaíso U20, a combined total of 4.94. That distribution gives Grêmio Valparaíso U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Grêmio Valparaíso U20 win

60.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.92 – 3.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Grêmio Valparaíso U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grêmio Valparaíso U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 23% / 17% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Luziânia U20 and 3.02 for Grêmio Valparaíso U20, a combined 4.94 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 87% and both teams to score at 81%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Match result (1X2)

Luziânia U20 win23%

Draw17%

Grêmio Valparaíso U20 win60%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals72%

Both teams to score81%

Correct score

1–36.3%
1–26.3%
2–36.1%
2–26.0%
1–44.8%

Recent form

Luziânia U20

Grêmio Valparaíso U20

2026-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceilândia U20 · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Planaltina DF U20 · 0-6 (L)
2026-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro U20 · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Maria U20 · 0-4 (L)
2026-06-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Canaã U20 · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Brasiliense U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brasiliense U20	3	3	0	0	21	9
2	Legiao U20	3	3	0	0	3	9
3	Sobradinho U20	2	2	0	0	11	6
4	Taguatinga U20	3	2	0	1	5	6
5	Capital TO U20	2	1	1	0	4	4
6	Samambaia U20	3	1	1	1	-1	4
7	Gama U20	4	1	0	3	0	3
8	Brazlândia FC SAF U20	3	1	0	2	-1	3
9	CFZ Brasilia U20	3	1	0	2	-7	3
10	ARUC U20	3	0	0	3	-14	0
11	Planaltina U20	3	0	0	3	-21	0
1	Planaltina DF U20	4	4	0	0	14	12
2	Grêmio Valparaíso U20	3	2	0	1	6	6
3	Canaã U20	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Real Brasília U20	3	2	0	1	4	6
5	Brasília U20	3	2	0	1	1	6
6	Paranoa U20	4	1	1	2	-5	4
7	Cruzeiro U20	4	1	1	2	-5	4
8	Ceilandense U20	4	1	1	2	-7	4
9	Santa Maria U20	3	1	0	2	-2	3
10	Luziânia U20	3	0	1	2	-6	1
11	Ceilândia U20	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Grêmio Valparaíso U20 win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.