· Analysis updated 19:23 UTC
Luziânia vs Candango Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Luziânia and 0.60 for Candango, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Luziânia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Luziânia win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luziânia home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Luziânia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 15% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Luziânia and 0.60 for Candango, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 41%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.3%
- 1–011.9%
- 3–011.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.2%
Recent form
Luziânia
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Canaa EC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs GREVAL · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Legião · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Planaltina DF · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-10-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Planaltina DF · 0-1 (L)
Candango
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brasiliense B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taguatinga EC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Planaltina DF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Canaa EC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | GREVAL | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Legião | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Luziânia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 7 | Candango | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Luziânia win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.