· Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
Luziânia vs Planaltina DF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Luziânia and 1.40 for Planaltina DF, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Planaltina DF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Planaltina DF win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luziânia home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Planaltina DF away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Planaltina DF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 25% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Luziânia and 1.40 for Planaltina DF, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.6%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–09.0%
Recent form
Luziânia
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Canaa EC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs GREVAL · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Legião · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Planaltina DF · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-10-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Planaltina DF · 0-1 (L)
Planaltina DF
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Legião · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Taguatinga EC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Canaa EC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Candango · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Luziânia · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brasiliense B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taguatinga EC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Planaltina DF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Canaa EC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | GREVAL | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Legião | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Luziânia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 7 | Candango | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Planaltina DF win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.