Lye Town vs Coventry Sphinx Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Lye Town vs Coventry Sphinx in the Non League Div One - Northern Midlands: no fixture-specific data has reached us for this match yet, so the figures below are a competition-average baseline with standard home advantage — not a rated model prediction on these two teams. They are excluded from our featured picks, accumulators and value selections, and will be replaced automatically once team and market data arrives.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.8% probability

Baseline estimate10/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

No fixture-specific data was available. These numbers are a competition-average prior with standard home advantage — not a model opinion on these two teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lye Town home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lye Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Lye Town and 1.18 for Coventry Sphinx, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Why this is a baseline estimate
No fixture-specific data was available for Lye Town or Coventry Sphinx yet, so these numbers are a Non League Div One - Northern Midlands scoring average with standard home advantage rather than a rated model pick. They are excluded from our featured picks, accumulators and value selections, and are replaced automatically as team data arrives.

Match result (1X2)

Lye Town win44%

Draw26%

Coventry Sphinx win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Recent form

Lye Town

2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 1-5 (L)
2025-08-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 0-2 (L)
2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hereford Pegasus · 2-0 (W)
2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 0-1 (L)
2025-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coleshill Town · 3-2 (W)

Coventry Sphinx

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Northern Midlands table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Anstey Nomads	42	28	8	6	45	92
2	Carlton Town	42	28	6	8	35	90
3	Basford United	42	19	12	11	7	69
4	Belper Town	42	19	11	12	15	68
5	Racing Club Warwick	42	18	11	13	6	65
6	Coleshill Town	42	18	10	14	2	64
7	Shepshed Dynamo	42	18	9	15	8	63
8	Lichfield City	42	17	9	16	-8	60
9	Wellingborough Town	42	15	13	14	16	58
10	Long Eaton United	42	16	10	16	4	58
11	Sutton Coldfield Town	42	16	9	17	-1	57
12	AFC Rushden & Diamonds	42	14	13	15	-5	55
13	Corby Town	42	15	10	17	-11	55
14	Boldmere St. Michaels	42	16	6	20	-17	54
15	Mickleover Sports	42	14	11	17	-7	53
16	Rugby Borough	42	13	13	16	3	52
17	Loughborough University	42	13	13	16	1	52
18	Bedworth United	42	13	11	18	-6	50
19	Bourne Town	42	12	7	23	-16	43
20	St Neots Town	42	11	10	21	-18	43
21	Coventry Sphinx	42	11	8	23	-18	41
22	Rugby Town	42	9	8	25	-35	35

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.