Lyn vs Sogndal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Lyn and 2.23 for Sogndal, a combined total of 4.60. That distribution gives Lyn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.38 – 2.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lyn home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Sogndal away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lyn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 19% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Lyn and 2.23 for Sogndal, a combined 4.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lyn win43%

Draw19%

Sogndal win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals67%

Both teams to score81%

Correct score

2–27.0%
2–16.3%
1–25.9%
3–25.6%
1–15.3%

Recent form

Lyn

2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bryne · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamle Oslo · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs hodd · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Egersund · 1-1 (D)

Sogndal

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabaek · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sotra · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stromsgodset · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kongsvinger	25	17	5	3	39	56
2	Haugesund	25	18	2	5	35	56
3	Stromsgodset	25	16	6	3	34	54
4	Stabaek	25	14	4	7	26	46
5	ODD Ballklubb	25	12	6	7	13	42
6	Bryne	25	12	2	11	1	38
7	hodd	25	10	4	11	-10	34
8	Egersund	25	9	5	11	-11	32
9	Ranheim	25	9	4	12	-1	31
10	Lyn	25	8	4	13	-14	28
11	Moss	25	8	4	13	-15	28
12	Strommen	25	7	6	12	-17	27
13	Sandnes ULF	25	7	5	13	-10	26
14	Sogndal	24	6	5	13	-16	23
15	Asane	25	6	5	14	-18	23
16	Raufoss	24	6	1	17	-36	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.