Stade de Balmont · Analysis updated 07:10 UTC
Lyon Duchere vs Montpellier II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Lyon Duchere and 1.28 for Montpellier II, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Lyon Duchere the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lyon Duchere win
68.7% probability
Expected goals
2.78 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lyon Duchere home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lyon Duchere to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.78 goals for Lyon Duchere and 1.28 for Montpellier II, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 77% and both teams to score at 67%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.7%
- 3–06.2%
- 1–16.2%
Recent form
Lyon Duchere
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bourges Foot 18 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chasselay MDA · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Toulon · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Andrézieux · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 0-1 (L)
Montpellier II
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lyon Duchere win, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.