Stade de Balmont · Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Lyon Duchere vs Nimes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Lyon Duchere and 3.75 for Nimes, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Nimes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nimes win
89.0% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 3.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lyon Duchere home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nimes away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nimes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 4% / 7% / 89% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Lyon Duchere and 3.75 for Nimes, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
11%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
96%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–39.8%
- 0–49.2%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–56.9%
Recent form
Lyon Duchere
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Toulon · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Andrézieux · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Priest · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rumilly Vallières · 1-7 (L)
Nimes
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hyères · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hauts Lyonnais · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Troyes II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon Duchere · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nimes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Hyères | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Toulon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | UF Touraine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Rumilly Vallières | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Hauts Lyonnais | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Troyes II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Chasselay MDA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrézieux | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Priest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Limonest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon Duchere | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Istres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Bourges Foot 18 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Canet Roussillon | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nimes win, at 89.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.