Stade de Balmont · Analysis updated 13:45 UTC
Lyon Duchere vs Toulon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Lyon Duchere and 2.78 for Toulon, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Toulon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Toulon win
82.9% probability
Expected goals
0.58 – 2.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lyon Duchere home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toulon away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
17%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.5%
- 0–312.5%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–48.7%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Lyon Duchere
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bourges Foot 18 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chasselay MDA · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Toulon · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Andrézieux · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 0-1 (L)
Toulon
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Troyes II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon Duchere · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Canet Roussillon · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bourges Foot 18 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · Lyon Duchere 3-1 Toulon (National 2 - Group C)
- 2023-02-11T15:00:00.000Z · Lyon Duchere 3-1 Toulon (National 2 - Group C)
- 2022-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · Lyon Duchere 2-1 Toulon (National 2 - Group C)
- 2022-02-11T18:00:00.000Z · Lyon Duchere 2-0 Toulon (National 2 - Group C)
- 2021-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · Lyon Duchere 2-0 Toulon (National 2 - Group C)
- 2019-12-13T19:00:00.000Z · Lyon Duchere 1-1 Toulon (Ligue 3)
National 2 - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nimes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Hyères | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Toulon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | UF Touraine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Rumilly Vallières | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Hauts Lyonnais | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Troyes II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Chasselay MDA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrézieux | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Priest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Limonest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon Duchere | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Istres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Bourges Foot 18 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Canet Roussillon | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toulon win, at 82.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.