Groupama Stadium · Referee François Letexier, France · Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Lyon vs Le Havre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Lyon and 0.66 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Lyon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lyon win
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lyon home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Le Havre away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.5%
- 2–013.7%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.7%
Recent form
Lyon
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)
Le Havre
- 2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · Lyon 1-1 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2026-03-15T16:15:00.000Z · Lyon 0-0 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2025-12-14T14:00:00.000Z · Lyon 1-0 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2025-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Lyon 4-2 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2024-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · Lyon 4-0 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2024-01-14T16:05:00.000Z · Lyon 1-3 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2023-09-17T18:45:00.000Z · Lyon 0-0 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lyon win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.