Groupama Stadium · Analysis updated 19:43 UTC
Lyon vs Nice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Lyon and 0.85 for Nice, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Lyon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lyon win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lyon home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nice away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 53.7% vs market 45.2%, edge +8.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 45.2% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +8.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 42.3% | 43.6% | 2.29 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.65 | 56.2% | 56.3% | 1.78 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.4% | 24.4% | 4.10 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.80 | 19.3% | 19.2% | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 81.4% | 80.7% | 1.24 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 76.2% | 75.5% | 1.32 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 54.8% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -8.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lyon
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)
Nice
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-15T19:45:00.000Z · Lyon 2-0 Nice (Ligue 1)
- 2025-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · Lyon 2-3 Nice (Ligue 1)
- 2025-03-09T19:45:00.000Z · Lyon 2-0 Nice (Ligue 1)
- 2024-12-01T16:00:00.000Z · Lyon 4-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
- 2024-02-16T20:00:00.000Z · Lyon 1-0 Nice (Ligue 1)
- 2023-08-27T18:45:00.000Z · Lyon 0-0 Nice (Ligue 1)
- 2023-06-03T19:00:00.000Z · Lyon 1-3 Nice (Ligue 1)
- 2022-11-11T20:00:00.000Z · Lyon 1-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
- 2022-02-12T20:00:00.000Z · Lyon 2-0 Nice (Ligue 1)
- 2021-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · Lyon 2-3 Nice (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lyon win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.