Groupama Stadium · Referee Mathieu Vernice, France · Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Lyon vs Rennes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lyon and 1.19 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Lyon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lyon home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rennes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–07.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.60 (model 45.8% vs market 35.6%, edge +10.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.60 | 35.6% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +10.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.4% | 55.3% | 1.81 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.9% | 3.34 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.5% | 25.4% | 3.94 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 44.8% | 44.6% | 2.24 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.5% | 1.34 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.9% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.4% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -10.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lyon
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)
Rennes
- 2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Laval · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T18:45:00.000Z · Lyon 4-2 Rennes (Ligue 1)
- 2025-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · Lyon 1-3 Rennes (Ligue 1)
- 2025-04-26T19:05:00.000Z · Lyon 4-1 Rennes (Ligue 1)
- 2024-08-18T18:45:00.000Z · Lyon 0-3 Rennes (Ligue 1)
- 2024-01-26T20:00:00.000Z · Lyon 2-3 Rennes (Ligue 1)
- 2023-11-12T16:05:00.000Z · Lyon 1-0 Rennes (Ligue 1)
- 2023-04-09T11:00:00.000Z · Lyon 3-1 Rennes (Ligue 1)
- 2022-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · Lyon 2-3 Rennes (Ligue 1)
- 2022-03-13T16:05:00.000Z · Lyon 2-4 Rennes (Ligue 1)
- 2021-11-07T19:45:00.000Z · Lyon 1-4 Rennes (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.