Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Lyon and 1.14 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Lyon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Lyon win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.89 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lyon home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Brestois 29 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Lyon win55%

Draw22%

Stade Brestois 29 win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.8%
1–09.2%
2–08.7%
3–16.2%

Recent form

Lyon

2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)

Stade Brestois 29

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-01-18T19:45:00.000Z · Lyon 2-1 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2025-11-02T19:45:00.000Z · Lyon 0-0 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2025-03-02T14:00:00.000Z · Lyon 2-1 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2025-01-11T16:00:00.000Z · Lyon 1-2 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2024-04-14T18:45:00.000Z · Lyon 4-3 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2023-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · Lyon 0-1 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2023-02-01T20:00:00.000Z · Lyon 0-0 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2022-12-28T20:00:00.000Z · Lyon 4-2 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2022-04-20T19:00:00.000Z · Lyon 1-2 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2021-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · Lyon 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lyon win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.