Lyon vs Toulouse Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Lyon and 1.04 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Lyon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Lyon win

58.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.96 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lyon home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lyon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Lyon and 1.04 for Toulouse, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lyon win59%

Draw22%

Toulouse win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–19.9%
1–09.8%
2–09.6%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Lyon

2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)

Toulouse

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · Lyon 1-2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2025-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Lyon 1-2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2025-01-18T20:05:00.000Z · Lyon 0-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2024-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · Lyon 2-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2024-03-15T20:00:00.000Z · Lyon 3-2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2023-12-10T16:05:00.000Z · Lyon 3-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2023-04-14T19:00:00.000Z · Lyon 2-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2022-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · Lyon 1-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2020-01-26T14:00:00.000Z · Lyon 3-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2019-12-18T17:45:00.000Z · Lyon 4-1 Toulouse (Coupe de la Ligue)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lyon	7	4	2	1	8	14
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	4	2	1	5	14
3	Paris FC	7	4	2	1	5	14
4	Lille	7	4	2	1	5	14
5	Monaco	7	4	2	1	4	14
6	Rennes	7	4	1	2	1	13
7	Lorient	7	3	2	2	1	11
8	Lens	7	3	1	3	3	10
9	Marseille	7	3	0	4	4	9
10	Stade Brestois 29	7	2	3	2	3	9
11	Toulouse	7	2	3	2	1	9
12	Auxerre	7	3	0	4	-6	9
13	Nice	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Strasbourg	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Angers	7	2	1	4	-6	7
16	Le Mans	7	1	3	3	-5	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	1	1	5	-11	4
18	Le Havre	7	0	2	5	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lyon win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.