Parc Olympique Lyonnais · Referee E. Daupeux · Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
Lyon W vs Paris FC W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Lyon W and 1.36 for Paris FC W, a combined total of 5.86. That distribution gives Lyon W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lyon W win
86.4% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paris FC W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lyon W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 8% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Lyon W and 1.36 for Paris FC W, a combined 5.86 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 89% and both teams to score at 71%, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.6%
- 5–16.0%
- 3–15.9%
- 4–04.9%
- 4–24.5%
Recent form
Lyon W
Paris FC W
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Feminine Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 12 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Paris FC W | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Marseille W | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Le Havre W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 6 | Montpellier W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 7 | Strasbourg W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | FC Fleury 91 W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Saint-Malo W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Nantes W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Lens W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Toulouse W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lyon W win, at 86.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.