Sportpark Lier · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar vs Hoogstraten Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar and 1.64 for Hoogstraten, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Lyra-Lierse Berlaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hoogstraten away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lyra-Lierse Berlaar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar and 1.64 for Hoogstraten, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heist · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoogstraten · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Thes Sport · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Houtvenne · 4-3 (W)
Hoogstraten
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dender · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dessel Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Merelbeke · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meux | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | RWDM | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Rochefort | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Tubize | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Sporting Charleroi II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 9 | Standard Liège II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 12 | Flénu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.