Lysekloster Family Arena · Analysis updated 12:42 UTC
Lysekloster vs Bjarg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Lysekloster and 1.60 for Bjarg, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Bjarg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bjarg win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lysekloster home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bjarg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 25% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Lysekloster and 1.60 for Bjarg, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Lysekloster
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Træff · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eik-Tønsberg · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs jerv · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandviken · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pors Grenland · 0-2 (L)
Bjarg
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jerv | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 56 |
| 2 | Brattvåg | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Bjarg | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 50 |
| 4 | Mjondalen | 25 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 50 |
| 5 | Sotra | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 45 |
| 6 | Notodden | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 35 |
| 7 | Kvik Halden | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -1 | 34 |
| 8 | Træff | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | Pors Grenland | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Arendal | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Sandviken | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -18 | 22 |
| 13 | Eik-Tønsberg | 25 | 4 | 1 | 20 | -28 | 13 |
| 14 | Vidar | 25 | 3 | 4 | 18 | -42 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bjarg win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.