· Analysis updated 16:59 UTC
Mławianka Mława vs Swit Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Mławianka Mława and 1.75 for Swit, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Swit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Swit win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mławianka Mława home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Swit away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.9%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
Mławianka Mława
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Zambrów · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Elbląg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Swit · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 4-3 (W)
Swit
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź II · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Mławianka Mława · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Łomża · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Weszlo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T13:00:00.000Z · Mławianka Mława 1-1 Swit (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2025-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Mławianka Mława 3-4 Swit (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Mławianka Mława 1-1 Swit (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Mławianka Mława 6-0 Swit (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2024-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Mławianka Mława 0-3 Swit (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2023-10-07T13:30:00.000Z · Mławianka Mława 2-3 Swit (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2023-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · Mławianka Mława 2-3 Swit (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2022-09-03T15:00:00.000Z · Mławianka Mława 3-2 Swit (III Liga - Group 1)
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 31 |
| 3 | Swit | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Pelikan Łowicz | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Wisła Płock II | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Warta Sieradz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 9 | Olimpia Zambrów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia II | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Widzew II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | ŁKS Łódź II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Mławianka Mława | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -15 | 11 |
| 18 | Łomża | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Swit win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.