M'saken vs Kerkennah Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for M'saken and 0.55 for Kerkennah, a combined total of 1.43. That distribution gives M'saken the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 17% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

78.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.88 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kerkennah away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates M'saken to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 37% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for M'saken and 0.55 for Kerkennah, a combined 1.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 17% and both teams to score at 25%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%.

Match result (1X2)

M'saken win41%

Draw37%

Kerkennah win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

63%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals42%

Over 2.5 goals17%

Over 3.5 goals6%

Both teams to score25%

Correct score

0–024.1%
1–021.0%
0–113.2%
1–111.6%
2–09.2%

Recent form

M'saken

Kerkennah

2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs EM Mahdia · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Hammam-Lif · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Menzel Bourguiba · 4-0 (W)
2026-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Tataouine · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Redeyef	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	EM Mahdia	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	AS Kasserine	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	JS Kairouanaise	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	AS Soliman	2	1	1	0	3	4
6	Mégrine	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	BS Bouhajla	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	M'saken	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Sfax Railways	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Ksour Essef	2	1	1	0	1	4
11	Sporting Ben Arous	2	1	0	1	2	3
12	Korba	2	1	0	1	2	3
13	Kalaâ Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Jendouba Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
15	US Tataouine	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Bouchamma	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2	0	0	2
18	Béni-Khalled	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Stade Soussien	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	AS Gabes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Ariana	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	CS Chebba	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Olympique du Kef	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	AS Agareb	2	0	1	1	-3	1
25	Moknine	2	0	1	1	-3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	0	0	2	-2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	0	0	2	-2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 78.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 17%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.