Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Maardu and 1.74 for Tallinna Kalev, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Maardu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.89 – 1.74

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Maardu home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tallinna Kalev away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maardu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Maardu and 1.74 for Tallinna Kalev, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Maardu win42%

Draw22%

Tallinna Kalev win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.7%
2–18.2%
1–27.6%
2–27.2%
3–15.2%

Recent form

Maardu

2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tallinn · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 4-1 (W)

Tallinna Kalev

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Flora II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United II · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	33	22	5	6	54	71
2	Viimsi	33	17	6	10	29	57
3	FCI Levadia II	32	16	2	14	8	50
4	Elva	32	14	7	11	-1	49
5	Flora II	31	14	6	11	18	48
6	Maardu	30	12	7	11	-12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	31	10	7	14	-5	37
8	Nõmme United II	32	10	6	16	-14	36
9	FC Tallinn	33	9	8	16	-35	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	6	6	21	-42	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.