Maardu linnastaadion · Analysis updated 16:14 UTC
Maardu vs Tartu Welco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Maardu and 2.75 for Tartu Welco, a combined total of 4.09. That distribution gives Tartu Welco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tartu Welco win
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maardu home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tartu Welco away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tartu Welco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 17% / 17% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Maardu and 2.75 for Tartu Welco, a combined 4.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–26.3%
- 1–16.2%
- 0–35.8%
Recent form
Maardu
- 2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tallinn · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 4-1 (W)
Tartu Welco
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Flora II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kose · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rumori Calcio II · 12-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Esiliiga A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 57 |
| 3 | FCI Levadia II | 32 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | Elva | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | -1 | 49 |
| 5 | Flora II | 31 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 48 |
| 6 | Maardu | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 43 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 37 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | -35 | 35 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -42 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tartu Welco win, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.