Ecuador · Liga Pro · Matchweek 2320:30

2 – 1

Sunday, 2 August 2026

Estadio La Cocha · Referee Gabriel Ismael Gonzalez Cordero, Ecuador · Analysis updated 14:11 UTC

Macara vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Macara and 0.88 for Guayaquil City FC, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Macara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Macara win

49.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Macara home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guayaquil City FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Macara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Macara and 0.88 for Guayaquil City FC, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Macara win50%

Draw27%

Guayaquil City FC win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.3%
1–112.5%
2–010.2%
0–010.0%
2–18.9%

Recent form

Macara

2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente del Valle · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Universidad Catolica · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Aucas · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Emelec · 1-0 (W)

Guayaquil City FC

2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Emelec · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Leones del Norte · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Mushuc Runa SC · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Orense SC · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Pro table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21
1	Independiente del Valle	33	25	3	5	40	78
2	Macara	34	19	6	9	12	63
3	Universidad Catolica	34	14	11	9	22	53
4	LDU de Quito	34	15	8	11	8	53
5	Aucas	33	14	9	10	3	51
6	Barcelona SC	32	11	12	9	6	45
7	Libertad	33	14	8	11	7	50
8	Guayaquil City FC	33	11	10	12	-6	43
9	Emelec	33	11	9	13	-9	42
10	Leones del Norte	33	10	10	13	-6	40
11	Deportivo Cuenca	34	12	8	14	-9	44
12	Mushuc Runa SC	33	9	13	11	-4	40
13	Orense SC	34	10	8	16	-8	38
14	Delfin SC	34	9	8	17	-13	35
15	Tecnico Universitario	33	10	3	20	-16	33
16	Manta FC	34	7	6	21	-27	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Macara win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.