Macara vs Independiente del Valle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Macara and 2.00 for Independiente del Valle, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Independiente del Valle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Independiente del Valle win

50.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.47 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Macara home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente del Valle away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente del Valle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 28% / 22% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Macara and 2.00 for Independiente del Valle, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Macara win28%

Draw22%

Independiente del Valle win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.2%
1–29.2%
2–16.7%
2–26.7%
0–16.2%

Recent form

Macara

2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad Catolica · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona SC · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-02T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Guayaquil City FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 1-1 (D)

Independiente del Valle

2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Pro table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21
1	Independiente del Valle	31	25	2	4	41	77
2	Macara	31	16	6	9	9	54
3	Universidad Catolica	31	14	9	8	23	51
4	Aucas	32	14	8	10	3	50
5	LDU de Quito	31	14	7	10	8	49
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	7	44
7	Libertad	32	13	8	11	3	47
8	Guayaquil City FC	31	10	10	11	-3	40
9	Leones del Norte	32	10	10	12	-4	40
10	Emelec	31	10	9	12	-10	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	32	9	12	11	-4	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	31	10	7	14	-12	37
13	Orense SC	31	9	6	16	-12	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	31	10	3	18	-14	33
15	Delfin SC	32	8	8	16	-11	32
16	Manta FC	31	6	6	19	-24	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Independiente del Valle win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.