Macarthur Rams vs Blacktown Spartans Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Macarthur Rams and 1.72 for Blacktown Spartans, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Blacktown Spartans the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Blacktown Spartans win

50.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Macarthur Rams home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Blacktown Spartans away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Blacktown Spartans to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 26% / 24% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Macarthur Rams and 1.72 for Blacktown Spartans, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Macarthur Rams win26%

Draw24%

Blacktown Spartans win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.2%
0–19.7%
1–29.6%
0–28.3%
1–06.5%

Recent form

Macarthur Rams

2026-08-15T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Blacktown Spartans · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Dulwich Hill · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulls Academy · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Hurstville FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Prospect United · 2-1 (W)

Blacktown Spartans

2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulls Academy · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-21T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Hurstville FC · 6-2 (W)
2026-08-15T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Macarthur Rams · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-07T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Inter Lions · 4-0 (W)
2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Prospect United · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

New South Wales NPL 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	30	21	6	3	43	69
2	Northern Tigers	30	17	8	5	25	59
3	Bankstown City Lions	30	17	5	8	20	56
4	Canterbury Bankstown	30	15	6	9	18	51
5	Hills Brumbies	30	14	7	9	17	49
6	Macarthur Rams	30	14	6	10	4	48
7	Hakoah Sydney City	30	11	10	9	12	43
8	Rydalmere Lions	30	11	8	11	-3	41
9	Bulls Academy	30	11	5	14	2	38
10	Inter Lions	30	10	5	15	-15	35
11	Hurstville FC	30	9	6	15	-13	33
12	Central Coast II	30	8	7	15	-21	31
13	Dulwich Hill	30	7	9	14	-18	30
14	Newcastle Jets II	30	6	11	13	-18	29
15	Prospect United	30	4	14	12	-19	26
16	Mt Druitt Town	30	6	5	19	-34	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Blacktown Spartans win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.