Sammy Ofer Stadium · Referee D. Fuxman · Analysis updated 07:47 UTC
Maccabi Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Maccabi Haifa and 2.00 for Ironi Tiberias, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Ironi Tiberias the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ironi Tiberias win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maccabi Haifa home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ironi Tiberias away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ironi Tiberias to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 33% / 21% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Maccabi Haifa and 2.00 for Ironi Tiberias, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.5%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.7%
Recent form
Maccabi Haifa
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Tiberias · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 2-1 (W)
Ironi Tiberias
- 2026-10-17T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Haifa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Katamon · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Toto Cup Ligat Al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 8 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 12 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Beitar Jerusalem | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ironi Tiberias win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.