· Analysis updated 07:01 UTC
Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Maccabi Herzliya and 1.95 for Hapoel Kfar Shalem, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Hapoel Kfar Shalem the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hapoel Kfar Shalem win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maccabi Herzliya home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Kfar Shalem away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.2%
- 1–110.2%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.5%
Recent form
Maccabi Herzliya
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kiryat Yam SC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Yehuda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kafr Qasim · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 0-2 (L)
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Acre · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ra'anana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Bnei Raina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Herzliya 4-2 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2026-02-06T13:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Herzliya 2-2 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2025-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Herzliya 2-0 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2025-04-07T16:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Herzliya 2-0 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2025-02-14T13:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Herzliya 2-1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2024-10-21T16:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Herzliya 1-2 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Leumit)
- 2023-01-26T15:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Herzliya 1-1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Alef)
- 2022-09-22T15:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Herzliya 3-3 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Alef)
- 2022-02-11T11:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Herzliya 0-0 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Alef)
- 2021-10-15T11:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Herzliya 0-0 Hapoel Kfar Shalem (Liga Alef)
Liga Leumit table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashdod | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Kiryat Yam SC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Hapoel Afula | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Ironi Modi'in | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 14 | Maccabi Herzliya | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hapoel Kfar Shalem win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.