· Analysis updated 02:22 UTC
Maccabi Kiryat Gat vs Maccabi Herzliya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Maccabi Kiryat Gat and 0.81 for Maccabi Herzliya, a combined total of 1.97. That distribution gives Maccabi Kiryat Gat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.4% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maccabi Herzliya away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maccabi Kiryat Gat to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 31% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Maccabi Kiryat Gat and 0.81 for Maccabi Herzliya, a combined 1.97 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 38%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 0–014.0%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–09.4%
Recent form
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Ra'anana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Herzliya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Modi'in · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion · 1-2 (L)
Maccabi Herzliya
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kiryat Yam SC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Yehuda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kafr Qasim · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Leumit table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashdod | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Kiryat Yam SC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Hapoel Afula | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Ironi Modi'in | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 14 | Maccabi Herzliya | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.