Maccabi Kiryat Gat vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Maccabi Kiryat Gat and 0.76 for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Maccabi Kiryat Gat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Maccabi Kiryat Gat win

57.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.59 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maccabi Kiryat Gat to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 25% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Maccabi Kiryat Gat and 0.76 for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

Match result (1X2)

Maccabi Kiryat Gat win57%

Draw25%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.2%
2–012.0%
1–111.5%
0–09.6%
2–19.2%

Recent form

Maccabi Kiryat Gat

2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Ra'anana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Herzliya · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Modi'in · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion · 1-2 (L)

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Acre · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Bnei Raina · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ra'anana · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Afula · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Leumit table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ashdod	11	9	1	1	15	28
2	Bnei Yehuda	11	8	3	0	17	27
3	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	11	7	2	2	8	23
4	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	11	6	3	2	6	21
5	Hapoel Ra'anana	11	6	1	4	8	19
6	Kiryat Yam SC	11	6	1	4	7	19
7	Hapoel Afula	11	5	3	3	3	18
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	11	5	2	4	6	17
9	Kafr Qasim	11	4	1	6	1	13
10	Hapoel Kfar Saba	11	4	0	7	-7	12
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	11	2	5	4	-2	11
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	11	3	2	6	-7	11
13	Ironi Modi'in	11	3	2	6	-8	11
14	Maccabi Herzliya	11	2	3	6	-5	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	11	3	0	8	-14	9
16	Hapoel Acre	11	0	1	10	-28	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Maccabi Kiryat Gat win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.