Netanya Stadium · Referee S. Berman · Analysis updated 07:26 UTC
Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Katamon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Maccabi Netanya and 1.28 for Hapoel Katamon, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Maccabi Netanya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maccabi Netanya win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maccabi Netanya home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Katamon away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maccabi Netanya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Maccabi Netanya and 1.28 for Hapoel Katamon, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Maccabi Netanya
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Tiberias · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 0-2 (L)
Hapoel Katamon
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Tiberias · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Toto Cup Ligat Al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 8 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 12 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Beitar Jerusalem | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maccabi Netanya win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.