HaMoshava Stadium · Analysis updated 02:22 UTC
Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Maccabi Petah Tikva and 2.13 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Hapoel Beer Sheva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hapoel Beer Sheva win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maccabi Petah Tikva home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Beer Sheva away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–37.0%
Recent form
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Katamon · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Beitar Jerusalem · 1-3 (L)
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Katamon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Tiberias · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-25T17:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Petah Tikva 0-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-10-20T17:15:00.000Z · Maccabi Petah Tikva 2-5 Hapoel Beer Sheva (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-05-30T17:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Petah Tikva 1-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva (State Cup)
- 2024-02-17T15:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Petah Tikva 1-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2023-12-16T16:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Petah Tikva 1-4 Hapoel Beer Sheva (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2022-03-02T18:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Petah Tikva 0-2 Hapoel Beer Sheva (State Cup)
- 2022-02-01T18:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Petah Tikva 1-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva (State Cup)
- 2022-01-23T18:15:00.000Z · Maccabi Petah Tikva 0-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2021-10-17T17:15:00.000Z · Maccabi Petah Tikva 0-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2021-05-26T17:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Petah Tikva 0-2 Hapoel Beer Sheva (Ligat Ha'al)
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Bnei Sakhnin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Maccabi Netanya | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hapoel Haifa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Katamon | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hapoel Beer Sheva win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.