HaMoshava Stadium · Analysis updated 22:42 UTC
Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Maccabi Petah Tikva and 2.15 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hapoel Tel Aviv win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maccabi Petah Tikva home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Tel Aviv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hapoel Tel Aviv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 24% / 21% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Maccabi Petah Tikva and 2.15 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–27.0%
- 1–36.8%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Katamon · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Beitar Jerusalem · 1-3 (L)
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 2026-10-24T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Katamon · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Tiberias · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Bnei Sakhnin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Maccabi Netanya | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hapoel Haifa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Katamon | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hapoel Tel Aviv win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.