Batumi Arena · Referee Manfredas Lukjancukas, Lithuania · Analysis updated 12:07 UTC
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 1.41 for CSKA Sofia, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maccabi Tel Aviv win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maccabi Tel Aviv home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA Sofia away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maccabi Tel Aviv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 1.41 for CSKA Sofia, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–06.9%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Haifa · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Beitar Jerusalem · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bnei Sakhnin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Netanya · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 4-1 (W)
CSKA Sofia
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Nordsjaelland · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA 1948 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 3-1 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-3 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maccabi Tel Aviv win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.