Bloomfield Stadium · Analysis updated 09:38 UTC
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 1.44 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maccabi Tel Aviv home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Tel Aviv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.5%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Haifa · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Beitar Jerusalem · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bnei Sakhnin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Netanya · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 4-1 (W)
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 2026-10-24T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Katamon · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Tiberias · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 4-1 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-05-09T17:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-1 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-04-19T17:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-01-26T18:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-2 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-01-14T18:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-1 Hapoel Tel Aviv (State Cup)
- 2025-10-19T17:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-01-17T18:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 4-2 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2023-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 5-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2023-01-28T18:00:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2022-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · Maccabi Tel Aviv 3-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Bnei Sakhnin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Maccabi Netanya | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hapoel Haifa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Katamon | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.