· Analysis updated 06:14 UTC
Maceratese vs Angelana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Maceratese and 1.38 for Angelana, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Angelana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Angelana win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maceratese home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Angelana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 27% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Maceratese and 1.38 for Angelana, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 47%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–29.0%
Recent form
Maceratese
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Recanatese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santegidiese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pietralunga · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ancona · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Ascoli · 1-2 (L)
Angelana
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Santegidiese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Teramo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Termoli Calcio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Ascoli · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 14 |
| 2 | Teramo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Vigor Senigallia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Foligno Calcio | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Ancona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Fossombrone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 7 | Notaresco | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Montecchio Gallo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Santegidiese | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Real Giulianova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Termoli Calcio | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Maceratese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Atletico Ascoli | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Recanatese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Angelana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Sporting Trestina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Pietralunga | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Angelana win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.