· Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Machico vs Camacha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Machico and 0.91 for Camacha, a combined total of 2.31. That distribution gives Machico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Machico win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Machico home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Camacha away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Machico
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alpendorada · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgueiros · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Camacha · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Beira-Mar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela Calheta · 0-0 (D)
Camacha
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Florgrade · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarda · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Florgrade · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Machico · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alpendorada · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · Machico 2-2 Camacha (Taça de Portugal)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · Machico 1-2 Camacha (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
- 2025-11-29T15:00:00.000Z · Machico 0-0 Camacha (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
- 2025-01-19T15:00:00.000Z · Machico 1-1 Camacha (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2024-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · Machico 0-0 Camacha (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2023-02-05T15:00:00.000Z · Machico 1-1 Camacha (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2022-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · Machico 0-1 Camacha (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Camacha | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Salgueiros | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | União Lamas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Estrela Calheta | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Beira-Mar | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Machico win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.