Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.30 for Avispa Fukuoka, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Machida Zelvia win

50.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Machida Zelvia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Avispa Fukuoka away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Machida Zelvia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.30 for Avispa Fukuoka, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Machida Zelvia win50%

Draw23%

Avispa Fukuoka win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.5%
1–07.9%
2–07.3%
1–26.7%

Recent form

Machida Zelvia

2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Svay Rieng · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)

Avispa Fukuoka

2026-10-24T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokyo Verdy · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-18T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	20	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	19	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	19	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	6	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	7	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	7	22
7	Urawa	12	7	0	5	-2	21
8	Kashima	12	6	2	4	4	20
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	4	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	-2	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	-7	14
13	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	-10	14
14	V-varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	-7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	-8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	-10	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	-12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	-8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	12	1	4	7	-12	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Machida Zelvia win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.