Machida Stadium · Referee Ming Fu, China · Analysis updated 08:32 UTC
Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.20 for Kawasaki Frontale, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Machida Zelvia win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Machida Zelvia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kawasaki Frontale away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Machida Zelvia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.20 for Kawasaki Frontale, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–07.3%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Machida Zelvia
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Svay Rieng · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)
Kawasaki Frontale
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashima · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Mito Hollyhock · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Shimizu S-pulse · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Urawa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Machida Zelvia win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.