National Olympic Stadium · Referee Koji Takasaki, Japan · Analysis updated 22:57 UTC
Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Machida Zelvia and 0.87 for Yokohama F. Marinos, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Machida Zelvia win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Machida Zelvia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yokohama F. Marinos away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Machida Zelvia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Machida Zelvia and 0.87 for Yokohama F. Marinos, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.9%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.1%
Recent form
Machida Zelvia
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Svay Rieng · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)
Yokohama F. Marinos
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sangyo University · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Kawasaki Frontale | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Urawa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 | Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Machida Zelvia win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.