· Analysis updated 16:42 UTC
Machokha vs Linare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Machokha and 2.11 for Linare, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Linare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Linare win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 2.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Machokha home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Linare away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Linare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 22% / 21% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Machokha and 2.11 for Linare, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–27.8%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–36.8%
Recent form
Machokha
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Linare · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Limkokwing University · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs LCS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Liphakoe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manonyane · 1-2 (L)
Linare
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Matlama · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manonyane · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Limkokwing University · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Majantja · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Machokha · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Linare win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.